Although the liberalization of the electricity market began as far back as 1996, it only gained broader public attention a few years ago, during the energy crisis. At that time, many questions were reopened, several decisions became the subject of revision and public debate, but the most pressing question was: what will the price of electricity be?
Today, we can discuss whether it was truly an energy crisis or simply new trends in the electricity market.
To fully understand the context of the electricity market, its specifics and the complexity of participation, as well as the uncertainty in predicting electricity prices, it is necessary to highlight that:
• Electricity is traded on a unified European market, taking into account the laws of electrical engineering as a science and the technical limitations of the power systems of individual countries, which operate within a single European interconnection,
• Electricity is traded on long-term, medium-term, and short-term markets that are interdependent,
• The price of electricity depends on many factors that are extremely complex in terms of forecasting (meteorology and hydrology, ETS certificate prices, gas, oil, and other derivatives, etc.),
• Electricity is impossible to store, at least not to the extent it is produced, etc.
All of the above factors contribute to the significant volatility of electricity prices and lead to a very simple but certainly accurate conclusion of any individual electricity market analysis – “this is the truth, but as of today.”
What is the actual volatility of the electricity market, what prices will we see in 2025, and can we now discuss trends for the next 10 years?
Will batteries and other storage technologies have a significant impact on electricity prices in the future? Will decarbonization and the integration of renewable energy sources lead to lower or higher prices?
Can the markets of the Western Balkans function efficiently without being connected to the unified European market, and why not?
These are just some of the questions we will address.
Moderator: Marko Janković
